It Will Come Down to Singles - Henry Shimp
Here we are. Ryder Cup week. 3 days every two years. The best events in sports are driven by novelty, and outside of the Olympics, The Ryder Cup has as much of that as anything. Better yet, the game gets more competitive every single year with more stars bursting onto the scene and fewer old hat back end of the roster guys seeming to fill out these teams. It’s turned into a gun show. And we like gun shows.
Click here to view this amazing footage from Harris Kalinka
The USA has not won an away game in precisely 30 years, which is pretty wild when you think about it. The fact that on paper we are somewhere between at least as good and significantly better than the Euros each contest yet we still struggle to get the job done (4-9 in the 13 since 1993) has turned into a massive internal debacle for those on the inside of the US Ryder Cup team. ~Task Forces~, public defamation of captains, and a team that is fully handpicked at this point. There are many measures that have been taken and divisive moments that have occurred to arrive at a spot where, all things considered, the US side is a slight favorite going into an away Ryder Cup. The Euros are better at the Ryder Cup, but the US is better at golf. Once again, it’s a gun show, and the American ammo hits harder. The only question that remains is how accurate of shooters they are.
I have a penchant for simplifying things. Often to a degree that is completely egregious. This may be one of those times, but I’m going to go ahead and provide my thoughts on this week and what the possible outcome may be anyway.
For my money, this thing is going to be tight. There will be a lot of great matches. It will be intense, sometimes hostile, and possibly even chippy (as chippy golf goes). One thing I know about sports is that Vegas is good at what they do. As I write this on Tuesday morning, the US Team is a -110 favorite to win. For the smart readers out there who abstain from sports betting, that is Vegas’ way of saying this is a coin flip. The buffer in there is their house spread that keeps them perpetually on top.
It’s no secret that foursomes (alternate shot) is the most difficult format to get right and that the Euros absolutely OWN the Americans when you have to rely on someone else for half the shots. As is pro forma, the Euros will give us a sound beating in foursomes. Hope I’m wrong, don’t think I am. Fourball feels more like track and field or swimming. Barring injury or sickness, better golfers tend to prevail when everyone plays their own ball out. So, once again sticking with tradition, I believe the Americans win the lion’s share of points in the 2 fourball sessions. Overall, I think we roll into the first day of October with the Europeans holding a slight advantage. I predict they will have between 8.5 and 9.5 of the points up for grabs to that point in the proceedings.
Click here to view this amazing footage from Harris Kalinka
This is where you could have just skipped the last 537 words and simply read the title of this post. It Will Come Down to Singles. While the models and eye tests both conclude that this is where the simple superiority of the golf that the Americans play will prevail, I believe the Euros win once again in an absolute nail biter. To be frank, I would rather see a tight European win than an American routing. Now, I’m not sure an American routing falls within 3 standard deviations of the expected outcome, so I don’t believe we need to worry about this. All I’m trying to say is that the Solheim Cup was absolutely wonderful ending in a tie where a native Spaniard ended up being the one who wanted it most and I think we can all agree that if this thing is tight and someone just has to identify as the player who tips the scale one way or the other, we’re all going to have a pleasant Sunday.
I’m a big believer in slow and steady progress towards a goal. So, let’s look back at our last few Ryder Cup outings.
2014 was the seminal moment. Tom Watson is the captain at Gleneagles and famously was deciding on pairings on the john each morning with no stats or thought put behind them. Maybe some coffee. Phil absolutely roasts Watson’s captaincy after the US Loses 16.5-11.5 for our 6th loss in 7 years.
2016 is the first Ryder Cup to be contested after the #(#)TASKFORCE is organized and the Americans lay the wood on home soil as per usual. We all pretend it was the Task Force but in reality it was a perfect set up for the Americans at Hazeltine (ok, maybe the more thoughtful course setup was due to the Task Force) and we were a much better squad that year.
2018. The big one. First one post TF on foreign soil. Outcome? L. Big time L. 17.5-10.5. Worse than last time. The ole Task Force might need to look into some different tasks and greater use of force.
2021. (2020 skipped. Thanks CoCo (as in vid)). More of the same on home turf. Americans dominate. That said, this one was a bit different. It would be the first time in 40 years the US side would hold GB&I to fewer than 10 points and the largest margin of victory for either side since 1977. A good old fashioned *fill in the blank however you see fit*
So, here we are. For the third time, It Will Come Down to Singles. The task force has had positive benefits to the US side, we’re a better team, but they know what it takes to win this thing better than we do. While I do believe there will be a real chance come Sunday for the Americans to pull it off, slow progress tells me that a tight loss is what progress will look like this time through. To hoist the tiny and arguably unworthy of “hoisting” Ryder Cup, I think we’ll need to wait for 2027 and Adare Manor. Important note on that… Adare Manor may be in Ireland, but it is in fact a Faz.
Let’s have a weekend.
Cheers,
Henry